This Is Why November Will Be a Disaster for the GOP

Politics is a game of addition in a world of division and subtraction.  Trump and the MAGA movement up to now have played the political game by addition through subtraction.  What started out as a cleaning of the GOP by Trump defeating establishment characters like Jeb Bush has grown into an all-out devouring of the entire GOP.  Heading into November the GOP faces the prospect of battling a civil war against Trump/MAGA forces while fighting the Democrats on down-ballot races throughout the nation.  The best race to highlight this effect is the Senate race in Maryland where the Democrats have a potential history making rockstar of a candidate in Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks against the former GOP Governor Larry Hogan.       

The Hogan/Alsobrooks race was touted by GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell as the easiest get of the election cycle back a few years ago.  And he was right back then before midterm elections showed the GOP had an abortion problem.  But what’s made the easiest get in the cycle a race the GOP may lose in November is the Trump/MAGA civil war against the GOP.  Hyper-partisan political battles are being waged across every facet of the political spectrum creating a byzantine labyrinth nearly untrekkable by most political campaigns.  It’s within this chaos the Trump organization created the MAGA movement to consume the broken parts of the GOP recreating it in the image of Trump and his financial backers.  The problem is candidates like Larry Hogan, who have the ability to take a blue state away from the Democrats in the Senate, are of no use to a Trump/MAGA party of 2025.  Hogan and his ability to create political multiplication behind enemy lines in blue Maryland would normally be the keystone to a takeover of the United States Senate for the GOP.  The race just started a few weeks ago and the Trump/MAGA machine has already dumped Hogan with Lara Trump announcing his campaign dead on arrival over his comments on the Trump hush money trial.

As Lara Trump showed on the Sunday shows, the Trump/MAGA movement has no interest in taking the Senate back from the Democrats this November, especially if it means supporting a candidate like former Governor Larry Hogan.  This is a divided GOP and is no longer a home for much of the traditional support the GOP has received over the past few generations.  This means the traditional apparatus the GOP relies upon for running campaigns will not be in play for November.  There won’t be armies of retired people at phone banks pitching for a political slate with a wide spectrum of options and alternatives.  This summer and fall will consist of campaigns throughout the nation using their platforms to raise money for Trump.  Any and all political communications outside of money or support for Trump will have no place heading into November.  This is clearly a recipe for electoral disaster and candidates like Larry Hogan have big decisions to make regarding things like addition and multiplication. 

Trump has brought the GOP to the breaking point inadvertently opening a door for candidates like Larry Hogan who could change America forever in this pivotal moment.  In fact, Larry Hogan and a handful of other elite GOP candidates actually have an opportunity to be a living embodiment of the old saying it’s always darkest before the dawn with a little foresight and leadership.  Larry Hogan and other elite candidates really only have one choice going forward and if played well they could not only attain success for themselves at the ballot box but they may forever change the political landscape in America going forward.  Imagine a forward-looking Senate campaign in Maryland that stood on a platform of being one of the campaigns that finally brought an end to Trump/MAGA from within the GOP?  Trump has inadvertently opened the door to a candidate like Larry Hogan to make November a referendum on Trump by publicly opposing Trump on pivotal issues like Trump’s politicized Supreme Court that overturned Roe v Wade. 

Hogan can’t beat a rockstar candidate like Angela Alsobrooks with the abortion issue dogging him while Trump/MAGA dismantle him from within.  What he and these other campaigns must do is a political jiujitsu taking all of the toxic Trump/MAGA positions and policies and flipping them into the reasons for ending the Trump movement from the GOP side by electing Republicans who will dismantle Trump policies at every turn and chase away all MAGA/Trump elements in the GOP.  The main question campaigns like Hogan should ask voters is, can voters depend on inexperienced Democrats to end the Trump/MAGA era or do they need experienced executives like Hogan to finally put an end to it?  It’s almost a natural pivot point for a 2028 Presidential run for Hogan.  Are voters in Maryland more willing to go with a pro-choice Republican using his campaign to clear the scourge of Trump/MAGA from the GOP while setting the stage for a run for the highest office in 2028 or is a rookie Democrat more than willing and able to get at the end of the long line of Democrat party political power operations in Washington DC? 

Either way, this is a guaranteed disaster for the GOP in November.  Candidates like Larry Hogan are going to have no choice but to use their campaigns as proxies for Biden and the Democrats to win the White House in November.  They’ll be forced to do this with no guarantee they can win their races individually creating a scenario where the GOP could lose in November in historic ways no one has ever considered.  But if the Hogans of the world are able to perceive the moment and use November as the beginning of 2028, where Hogan becomes the tip of the spear to end Trump/MAGA he may fare well not only in November but nationally for 2028.  This is a big gamble but it’s truly the only way forward if Hogan and the other elite candidates in this November’s GOP field have any shot at victory.