By Thomas Anderson
The dirty little secret no one in the political class ever mentions these days is traditional campaign infrastructure cash doesn’t go as far as it once did. Yes, inflation is a big driver here, but even bigger is how saturated the market is with dark money and disinformation. It’s caused voters to become more sophisticated in what they’re engaging in, especially online. Memes backed with billionaire cash doesn’t cut it anymore as the voters have gotten numb to all of what I call, “Cotton Candy”. This environment is one where you end up with massive upsets like Maryland’s Democratic Party Senate Primary between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Congressman David Trone.
Alsobrooks was down in virtually every poll and outspent almost 9 to 1, of which Trone spent over $60 million of his own wealth derived from the Total Wine corporate empire he founded with his brother. This forced Alsobrooks to run a local level Grassroots campaign visiting and listening to small groups throughout the state and using that interaction to build out their public affairs campaign. As Congressman Trone inundated the airwaves and social media, Alsobrooks campaign manager Conner Lounsbury stated after election night the campaign focused on countering Trone’s big money attacks by showcasing their candidate on a personal level, “Angela used that time to be in every living room, every backyard across the state, meeting with leaders, faith communities ― everything.” I believe this type of campaign proves Alsobrooks has a rockstar-style appeal to voters in Maryland.
Indeed, the Democrats truly believe they have a rockstar in Angela Alsobrooks, showering her with blue-chip endorsements and backing her with dark money from groups like Emily’s List. They’ve already started attacking former Governor of Maryland Larry Hogan on the abortion issue showing they’re going to carry their momentum from the upset over Trone directly into the face of the Hogan campaign. The abortion issue is a huge loser for the Hogan team, so much so they could actually lose this campaign before it starts if the Democrats are successful at framing this race around it. From where I am sitting, it appears the Hogan campaign is showing signs they may be taking on too much water too early on the abortion issue. Not good!
I believe a rockstar candidate in Alsobrooks, abortion defining the race, and dark money pouring in nationally to back Alsobrooks is a winner the GOP might find hard to beat. What makes it harder on the GOP is the historic nature of a potential Alsobrooks victory, she’s one of three Black American Female candidates running for United States Senate. Voters love to make statements and this cycle’s big statement is abortion. When a candidate with political rockstar appeal can combine their existence as a human being with an election cycle’s big statement you’ve got trouble on the opposing team.
It really doesn’t matter what the polls say or how great Hogan is throughout the campaign. That combination Alsobrooks has going for her can win anywhere in America on any level in virtually any state. But especially Maryland. Can Hogan still win? Yes, of course. But it would nearly take a miracle for his team to navigate the waters they’re facing without making huge mistakes. To put it in football terms, the Hogan team is the big favorite coming into the old Orange Bowl against the Miami Hurricanes of the 1980s in Alsobrooks.
Those Miami teams were small, they had a tiny budget, tiny everything, but they had a proven winning system that aligned with the spirit of the city the University and their student body called home. I doubt the Hogan team knows they’re in for what the big Nebraska and Oklahoma teams suffered in the Orange Bowl back in those days. A good old-fashioned whooping. Maybe I’m wrong and they’ve got their big boy pants on and ready to ride. Time will tell. For now, it’s clearly Alsobrooks’ race to lose.