As the holiday season approaches, so does a familiar specter in Washington: a looming government shutdown. This time, it comes with an unusual protagonist at the forefront—Elon Musk. Musk, alongside Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, has urged the House GOP to reject a federal spending bill, labeling it “the biggest piece of pork ever” and calling for drastic cuts. While Musk’s rhetoric may galvanize his fervent supporters, his attempt to leverage his considerable influence to pressure a lame-duck Congress into such a dramatic move is, at best, politically naive. At worst, it highlights the dangerous disconnect between his brand of political brinkmanship and the reality of governance.
Musk’s rise to power in American politics is a study in dark money and disinformation. By his own admission, as a self-proclaimed leader of “Dark MAGA,” Musk has perfected the dark money game. He has wielded his financial clout and media-savvy propaganda machine to propel candidates and causes of his choosing, most notably aiding Donald Trump’s successful 2024 bid for the presidency. However, translating dark money influence into meaningful legislative change is proving to be a more elusive challenge—and nowhere is that clearer than in this latest gambit to block government funding.
The Lame-Duck Dilemma
With just weeks remaining before a new Congress is seated, Musk’s push to convince Republicans to shut down the government smacks of political desperation rather than strategic calculation. This Congress—like every lame-duck session before it—operates with diminished authority. The incoming Congress, regardless of its composition, will have its own priorities and political battles, making any moves now feel ephemeral at best.
Even more perplexing is Musk’s expectation that a shutdown over spending cuts will resonate with voters. The next election for the House of Representatives is two years away. Two years is an eternity in politics, a landscape defined by shifting allegiances and short memories. Shutting down the government to satisfy Musk’s ideological crusade would be a hard sell to the 435 members of Congress, all of whom face the reality of answering to local constituents.
For these lawmakers, the calculus is simple: How many voters would rally behind cutting essential programs like Medicare and Medicaid during the holiday season? The optics are grim. The economic ripple effects of a shutdown would hit local communities hardest, from furloughed federal workers to delayed public services. It’s a gamble few representatives are likely to take, particularly when the person demanding the sacrifice—Musk—operates far removed from the consequences.
The DOGE Flaw
At the heart of Musk’s political machine is what he calls DOGE—a decentralized organizational governance entity—that functions as both an ideological movement and a campaign apparatus. DOGE excels at claiming victories, often amplifying Musk’s successes and sidelining his failures. But this setup has a glaring flaw: its detachment from the political realities faced by elected officials.
Unlike Musk, who enjoys the luxury of existing outside the electoral cycle, politicians must navigate the complex terrain of voter expectations, local issues, and reelection campaigns. Asking them to risk their careers for DOGE’s agenda is a stretch, especially when Musk and his allies would undoubtedly claim credit for any successes while leaving lawmakers to shoulder the blame for unpopular decisions.
Take, for example, the idea of primarying lawmakers who refuse to toe the DOGE line on spending cuts. While primary challenges have been effective in reshaping the GOP’s ideological landscape, they are far less potent when the sole campaign message revolves around slashing Medicare and Medicaid. Essential benefits are a third rail in American politics for a reason—voters across the political spectrum rely on them. The notion that Musk’s wealth and social media influence could override such entrenched realities is emblematic of his disconnect.
This disconnect becomes even more glaring when considering Musk’s actual influence on elections outside of Donald Trump. Despite his deep pockets and strategic use of dark money, there is little evidence that Musk played a decisive role in any other major political races. While Musk’s involvement in Trump’s 2024 win was undeniable, there isn’t a single House or Senate race where one can credibly say Musk’s efforts were the determining factor. His threats to primary lawmakers ring hollow when his track record of delivering electoral wins—beyond Trump—is virtually nonexistent. For most politicians, Musk’s lack of tangible success in influencing other races makes his threats easy to dismiss.
The Illusion of Leverage
Musk’s political playbook relies heavily on the perception of power. By amplifying his messaging through social media and leveraging his considerable wealth, he creates the illusion of inevitability. But politics is not a zero-sum game, and the dynamics of governance are far more complex than a hostile corporate takeover.
The irony of Musk’s shutdown push is that it underscores his limitations. While he may excel at shaping narratives and bending public discourse to his will, his influence wanes when it comes to the unglamorous work of policymaking. Shutting down the government might momentarily satisfy Musk’s appetite for disruption, but it offers no path to lasting legislative victories. Instead, it risks alienating the very lawmakers he needs to achieve his broader goals.
A Political Reality Check
Musk’s political ascent has been meteoric, but it has also been marked by miscalculations. His “Dark MAGA” persona may resonate with a certain segment of the electorate, but it is ill-suited to the intricacies of governing. Threatening to upend Congress before Christmas to score ideological points not only alienates lawmakers but also risks eroding Musk’s own political capital.
The reality is that governing requires compromise, patience, and a willingness to share both credit and blame. Musk’s DOGE framework, built on centralized acclaim and decentralized accountability, is fundamentally at odds with these principles. As the potential showdown unfolds, Musk’s political influence faces a critical test—one that may ultimately reveal the limits of his power.
For now, Musk’s vision of using dark money to reshape American politics remains intact. But his attempt to transform that vision into legislative muscle through a lame-duck Congress is floundering. Perhaps it’s time for Musk to step back and recognize the difference between controlling a narrative and governing a nation.